基于CT和临床特征的列线图模型预测急性胰腺炎经口进食时机:多中心研究
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1.川北医学院附属医院放射科,医学影像四川省重点实验室;2.川北医学院第二临床学院,南充市中心医院影像科;3.自贡市第四人民医院放射科

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国家自然科学基金(No. 82371961);川北医学院附属医院科技项目(揭榜挂帅) (2022JB001)


Nomogram model based on CT and clinical features for predicting the timing of oral feeding in acute pancreatitis: A multicenter study
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    摘要:

    目的:确定影响急性胰腺炎(AP)患者经口进食时机的因素,并建立基于胃肠道CT特征和临床指标的预测模型,指导AP临床进食。方法:回顾性分析我院152例 AP 患者,以6:4随机分为训练集和内部验证集,来自另外两家三级甲等综合医院的59例和55例患者组成两个外部验证集。患者分为早期进食组(发病7天内)和晚期进食组(发病7天后),评估其临床指标及AP的CT表现、胃肠道改变CT评分。采用单因素及多因素 Logistic 回归分析确定独立预测因素,构建列线图模型,并使用受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线和DCA曲线评估其性能。结果:白蛋白、EPIC评分及胃肠道改变CT评分为预测AP患者早期经口进食的独立危险因素,训练集模型的AUC为 0.80,优于仅临床指标(AUC = 0.70)或CT特征(AUC = 0.78)的模型;内部验证集和两个外部验证集的AUC分别为0.68、0.88和0.84。校准曲线、DCA 曲线显示其具有良好的一致性及临床实用性。结论:该综合模型能准确预测AP患者的经口进食时机,为个性化营养管理提供有价值的指导。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To identify factors affecting oral feeding resumption timing in acute pancreatitis (AP) and establish a nomogram model that integrates clinical indicators and CT gastrointestinal tract features for guiding AP feeding decisions. Methods: A retrospective multicenter study enrolled 152 consecutive AP patients at our institution (randomized to 60% training and 40% internal validation cohorts) plus two external validation patients (n = 59 and n = 55, respectively) from the other two tertiary hospitals. Patients were stratified by early or late feeding initiation (within or after 7 days onset). Clinical data, CT findings including Extrapancreatic Inflammation on CT (EPIC) scores, and gastrointestinal change on CT scores were collected. Independent predictors of early feeding were identified via univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression to build a nomogram, with performance evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Serum albumin, EPIC score, and gastrointestinal change on CT score were independent predictors of early oral feeding (all P<0.05). The AUC of nomogram model was 0.80 (training cohort), outperforming clinical-only (AUC = 0.70) and imaging-only (AUC = 0.78) models; internal and the other two external validation AUCs were 0.68, 0.88 and 0.84, respectively. Calibration and DCA verified good consistency and clinical utility. Conclusion: The integrated nomogram model accurately predicts AP oral feeding time, providing valuable guidance for personalized nutritional management.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-02-25
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-25
  • 录用日期:2026-04-05
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