晚期肺癌患者抗肿瘤治疗后心脏损伤风险预测列线图的构建与验证
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1.川北医学院附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科;2.川北医学院;3.川北医学院附属医院临床医学院

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南充市科技局(22ZXKTYJ0001);川北医学院附属医院院内课题(2024PTZK002);川北医学院附属医院/广安区人民医院联合发展科研项目(2024LHFZ02)


Construction and verification of the prediction of the risk of cardiac injury after anti-tumor treatment in patients with advanced lung cancer
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    摘要:

    目的:心脏毒性是影响肺癌患者抗肿瘤治疗后生存质量的重要并发症。本研究旨在构建并验证一个能够预测晚期肺癌患者抗肿瘤治疗后发生心脏损伤风险的列线图模型。方法:回顾性纳入川北医学院附属医院2019年6月至2024年12月期间接受基线心肌酶检测的404例晚期肺癌患者,按7:3比例随机分为建模组和验证组。采用MICE多重插补法处理缺失值,并在建模组中基于随机森林和XGBoost算法筛选重要变量,取两种算法重要性排名前12变量的交集作为候选变量。采用多因素Logistic回归分析并经Rubin法合并结果,筛选独立预测因子,构建列线图预测模型。通过ROC曲线、校准曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、决策曲线分析(DCA)和临床影响曲线(CIC)评价模型的区分度、校准度及临床效用。结果:使用XGBoost和随机森林算法分别筛选出重要性排序前12的特征变量,通过Venn图取交集确定9个变量,经多因素Logistic回归分析最终确定年龄、肌酸激酶同工酶(CKMB)、中性粒细胞与单核细胞之和与淋巴细胞比值(NMLR)、肌酐(Cr)共4个独立预测因子。基于此构建的列线图模型在建模组的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.742(95%CI:0.684~0.799),验证组AUC为0.714(95%CI:0.619~0.808),表明模型具有良好的区分能力;两组校准曲线与理想曲线吻合度较高,模型准确度良好。DCA提示该模型对晚期肺癌患者抗肿瘤治疗后心脏损伤风险的预测具有临床价值。结论:本研究开发的预测模型能够有效评估抗肿瘤治疗后发生心脏损伤的风险,为临床早期识别高危人群、制定个体化监测与干预策略提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Objective: Cardiotoxicity is an important complication that affects the quality of life of patients with lung cancer after antitumor therapy. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting the risk of cardiac injury after antitumor therapy in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods:A total of 404 patients with advanced lung cancer who underwent baseline myocardial enzyme testing at the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College between June 2019 and December 2024 were retrospectively enrolled and randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE). In the training cohort, important variables were screened using random forest and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms, and the intersection of the top 12 variables ranked by importance in the two algorithms was selected as candidate predictors. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was then performed, and the results were pooled according to Rubin’s rules to identify independent predictors and construct a nomogram prediction model. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curves (CICs).Results:XGBoost and random forest algorithms were used to identify the top 12 feature variables ranked by importance, respectively. The intersection of these variables was obtained using a Venn diagram, yielding nine candidate variables. Multivariable logistic regression analysis further identified four independent predictors: age, creatine kinase-MB isoenzyme (CKMB), the neutrophil plus monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (NMLR), and serum creatinine (Cr). The nomogram model constructed based on these predictors achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.742 (95% CI: 0.684–0.799) in the training cohort and 0.714 (95% CI: 0.619–0.808) in the validation cohort, indicating good discriminative ability. The calibration curves in both cohorts showed good agreement with the ideal curve, suggesting favorable calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the model had clinical value for predicting the risk of cardiac injury after antitumor therapy in patients with advanced lung cancer.Conclusion: The prediction model developed in this study can effectively assess the risk of cardiac injury after antitumor therapy in patients with advanced lung cancer. It may provide a useful reference for the early identification of high-risk patients and for developing individualized monitoring and intervention strategies.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-20
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-05
  • 录用日期:2026-06-24
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