肺癌胸腔镜术后复合并发症简易临床风险评分系统的建立与验证
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1.川北医学院附属广元市中心医院,广元市中心医院重症医学科;2.广元市中心医院胸外科;3.广元市中心医院重症医学科

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Development and Validation of a Simplified Clinical Risk Scoring System for Composite Complications Post-Lung Cancer Thoracoscopic Surgery
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    摘要:

    目的:构建并验证肺癌胸腔镜手术患者术后复合并发症的简易临床风险评分系统。方法:收集2023年1月至2024年12月于我院165例肺癌胸腔镜手术患者,以术后复合并发症为主要结局指标。通过单因素与多因素Logistic回归筛选术后并发症的独立影响因素,构建列线图模型,采用ROC曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)拟合优度检验及决策曲线分析验证模型性能。结果:术后复合并发症发生率为25.45%(42/165)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,合并脑血管疾病(P=0.003)、术中液体总入量增加(P=0.005)是独立危险因素;术前低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)水平升高(P<0.001)、术前纤维蛋白原(Fib)水平升高(P=0.004)为独立保护因素。模型AUC为0.81;H-L检验P=0.2766,模型校准度良好;DCA 证实该模型可获得临床净获益。结论:脑血管疾病、术中液体总入量及术前较高的LDL-C与Fib水平是术后并发症的独立影响因素。基于以上指标构建的简易临床风险评分系统,具有良好的区分度、校准度与临床实用性。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To develop and validate a simple clinical risk scoring system for postoperative complications in patients undergoing thoracoscopic lung cancer surgery. Methods: Data were collected from 165 patients who underwent thoracoscopic lung cancer surgery at our hospital between January 2023 and December 2024, with postoperative composite complications as the primary outcome measure. Single-factor and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for postoperative complications. A nomogram model was constructed, and its performance was validated using ROC curves, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, and decision curve analysis. Results: The incidence of postoperative composite complications was 25.45% (42/165). Results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that concomitant cerebrovascular disease (P=0.003) and increased total intraoperative fluid intake (P=0.005) were independent risk factors; elevated preoperative low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels (P<0.001) and elevated preoperative fibrinogen (Fib) levels (P=0.004) were independent protective factors. The model’s AUC was 0.81; the P-value for the H-L test was 0.2766, indicating good model calibration; and the DCA confirmed that the model yields a clinical net benefit. Conclusion: Cerebrovascular disease, total intraoperative fluid intake, and elevated preoperative LDL-C and fibrinogen levels are independent risk factors for postoperative complications. A simple clinical risk scoring system based on these indicators demonstrates good discriminatory power, calibration, and clinical utility.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-03
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-23
  • 录用日期:2026-07-09
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