急性创伤性凝血病的危险因素及列线图预测模型的构建
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江苏省第五期“333工程”培养资金资助项目(BRA2020233);


Risk factors analysis of acute traumatic coagulopathy and construction of nomogram prediction model
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    摘要:

    目的:探讨急性创伤性凝血病(ATC)的危险因素及列线图预测模型的构建。方法:选取178例严重创伤患者为研究对象,依据是否发生ATC将患者分为ATC组(n=60)和非ATC组(n=118)。单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析引起严重创伤患者发生ATC的独立风险因素;利用R软件,基于独立风险因素构建严重创伤患者发生ATC的列线图预测模型,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线验证模型的预测效能。结果:178例严重创伤患者,60例发生ATC,发生率为33.71%(60/178)。单因素分析显示,ATC组输血及血液制品使用的比例高于非ATC组(P<0.05);活化部分凝血酶原时间(APTT)、凝血酶时间(TT)、国际标准化比值(INR)、尿素氮(BUN)、乳酸、剩余碱(BE)及休克指数(SI)水平高于非ATC组(P<0.05),纤维蛋白原(FIB)及血小板计数(PLT)水平低于非ATC组(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,FIB低(OR=0.557)、PLT低(OR=0.692)、乳酸高(OR=1.241)及SI高(OR=1.533)均是严重创伤患者发生ATC的独立风险因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示,基于独立风险因素构建的列线图预测模型预测严重创伤患者发生ATC的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.895(95%CI:0.840~0.936),敏感度和特异度分别为85.00%和83.90%。结论:FIB低、PLT低、乳酸高及SI高是严重创伤患者发生ATC的独立风险因素,基于独立风险因素构建的列线图预测模型可较好预测患者发生ATC概率。

    Abstract:

    Objective:To explore the risk factors of acute traumatic coagulopathy(ATC)in patients with severe trauma,and construct its nomogram prediction model.Methods:178 patients with severe trauma were selected as the research subjects.They were divided into ATC group(n=60)and non-ATC group(n=118)according to whether ATC occurred.The clinical data of patients were collected,and the independent risk factors of ATC in patients with severe trauma were established by univariate and Logistic multivariate regression analysis.R software was used to construct a nomogram prediction model for ATC in patients with severe trauma by incorpora-ting the screened independent risk factors,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to verify the predictive effi-cacy of the model.Results:Of the 178 patients with severe trauma,60 had ATC,with an incidence of 33.71%(60/178).Univariate analysis showed that the blood transfusion and blood product use in ATC group were higher than those in non-ATC group(P<0.05).APTT,TT,INR,BUN,lactic acid,BE,and SI in ATC group were higher than those in non-ATC group(P<0.05),FIB and PLT were lower than those in non-ATC group(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that low FIB(OR=0.557),low PLT(OR=0.692),high lactic acid(OR=1.241),and high SI(OR=1.533)were independent risk factors for ATC in patients with se-vere trauma(P<0.05).The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram prediction model was 0.895(95%CI=0.840~0.936),and the sensitivity and specificity were 85.00%and 83.90%,respectively.Conclusion:Low FIB,low PLT,high lactic acid,and high SI are independent risk factors for ATC in patients with severe trauma.The nomogram prediction model constructed on this basis can better predict the probability of ATC in patients.

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张珈豪;臧奎;.急性创伤性凝血病的危险因素及列线图预测模型的构建[J].川北医学院学报,2025,40(3):319-322 357.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-24
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