老年结直肠癌化疗患者发生骨髓抑制的影响因素及预测模型构建
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河北省医学科学研究课题计划(20191613);


Influencing factors and predictive model construction of bone marrow sup-pression in elderly patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy
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    目的:探究老年结直肠癌(CRC)患者在化疗过程中发生骨髓抑制的相关因素,通过构建预测骨髓抑制的风险模型,识别老年CRC患者在化疗期间发生骨髓抑制的关键影响因素,为临床个体化治疗提供数据支持。方法:选取102例行化疗老年CRC患者为研究对象,其中32例发生骨髓抑制的患者作为研究组;70例未发生骨髓抑制的患者作为对照组。收集两组患者临床相关资料,使用单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析老年CRC化疗患者骨髓抑制的影响因素,构建风险预测模型并验证。结果:Logistic回归结果显示,年龄大、化疗时间长、营养风险筛查2002(NRS-2002)评分≥3分、联合用药化疗及血清白细胞计数(WBC)、血红蛋白(HGB)、血小板计数(PLT)下降是影响老年CRC患者发生骨髓抑制的危险因素(P<0.05);基于Logistic回归结果构建XGBoost模型,得出重要特征评分排前五位的为化疗时间长、NRS-2002评分≥3分、联合用药化疗及血清WBC、HGB下降,然后为年龄大、PLT下降,经ROC曲线评估XGBoost模型预测老年CRC患者化疗后骨髓抑制的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.905,敏感度为83.36%,特异度为92.35%;经Hosmer-Lemeshow检验,预测值与实际观测值之间差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:年龄大、化疗时间长、NRS-2002评分≥3分、联合用药化疗及血清WBC、HGB、PLT下降是老年CRC患者在化疗过程中发生骨髓抑制的独立危险因素,据此构建的XGBoost模型具有良好的预测效能。

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    Objective:To investigate the associated factors of bone marrow suppression in elderly patients with colorectal cancer(CRC)undergoing chemotherapy,construct a risk prediction model to identify key determinants of bone marrow suppression,and pro-vide data-driven support for personalized clinical treatment strategies.Methods:The clinical data of 32 elderly CRC patients who expe-rienced bone marrow suppression(study group)and 70 patients who did not experience bone marrow suppression(control group)were retrospectively analyzed.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the factors influencing bone marrow suppression in elderly CRC patients undergoing chemotherapy.A risk prediction model was subsequently developed and valida-ted.Results:The results of the Logistic regression analysis indicated that advanced age,prolonged duration of chemotherapy,a Nutrition-al Risk Screening-2002(NRS-2002)score of≥3,combined chemotherapy,and low serum levels of white blood cell count(WBC),he-moglobin(HGB),and platelet count(PLT)were risk factors for bone marrow suppression in elderly CRC patients(P<0.05).Based on these findings,an XGBoost model was developed.The top five most influential features identified by the model were prolonged chem-otherapy duration,NRS-2002 score≥3,combined chemotherapy,low serum WBC and HGB levels,followed by advanced age and low PLT levels.Evaluation using the ROC curve demonstrated that the AUC of the XGBoost model for predicting myelosuppression following chemotherapy in elderly CRC patients was 0.905,with a sensitivity of 83.36%and specificity of 92.35%.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed no significant difference between the predicted and actual observed values(P>0.05).Conclusion:Advanced age,prolonged duration of chemotherapy,NRS-2002 score≥3,combined chemotherapy regimen,and low expression levels of serum WBC,HGB,and PLT are independent risk factors for myelosuppression in elderly CRC patients undergoing chemotherapy.The XGBoost model construc-ted based on these factors demonstrates excellent predictive performance.

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王立鹏;邢树山;张漫玉;马艳荣;肖磊;.老年结直肠癌化疗患者发生骨髓抑制的影响因素及预测模型构建[J].川北医学院学报,2025,40(6):740-744.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-09
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