脓毒性心肌病患者预后影响因素分析及预测模型构建
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

四川省预防医学会医院感染与控制相关科研项目(SCGK202111);


Analysis of prognostic factors in patients with septic cardiomyopathy and development of prediction model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
    摘要:

    目的:探究脓毒性心肌病患者预后的影响因素并构建其预测模型。方法:选取156例脓毒性心肌病患者为研究对象,以7∶3的比例将患者分为建模组及验证组,建模组患者按结局不同再分为生存组及死亡组。采用多因素COX回归分析评估建模组患者预后的影响因素,使用R软件构建列线图预测模型,并通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线及临床决策曲线分析(DCA)对模型进行验证。结果:多因素COX回归分析显示,乳酸、D-二聚体、白细胞介素-6、APACHEⅡ评分、SOFA评分是脓毒性心肌病入院28 d死亡的独立危险因素。ROC曲线结果显示,建模组预测价值曲线面积(AUC)为0.90,验证组预测价值曲线面积(AUC)为0.83,提示该模型在对脓毒性心肌病患者预后有良好预测价值。临床决策曲线(DCA)结果显示,该模型中验证组及建模组的临床决策价值均优于“假设所有患者均死亡”(所有)及“假设所有患者均存活”(无)曲线。结论:预测模型实际、矫正曲线拟合度较好,接近理想曲线,具有一定临床实用价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective:To investigate the predictive factors of prognosis in patients with septic cardiomyopathy and building pre-diction model.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted on 156 patients with purulent pericarditis,and they were divided into a model set and a validation set in a 7∶3 ratio.The patients in the model set were divided into survival and death groups according to dif-ferent outcomes.The influence factors on the prognosis of the model set patients were evaluated by multivariate Cox regression analysis,and a ROC curve and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to validate the model using R software.Results:Multiple COX regres-sion analysis indicated that lactic acid,D-dimer,interleukin-6,APACHE-Ⅱscore and SOFA score were independent risk factors for 28 deaths in hospital with septic cardiomyopathy.ROC curve analysis results showed that the predictive value curve area(AUC)of the model set was 0.90,and the AUC of the validation set was 0.83,indicated that the model has good value in the prognosis of patients with septic cardiomyopathy.The results of the clinical decision curve(DCA curve)suggested that the clinical benefit of the validation set and the model set in this model was superior to the"assume all patients die"(all)and"assume all patients die"(none)curves.Conclusion:The prediction model has a good fit to the actual and correction curves,approaching the ideal curve,and has certain clini-cal practical value for patients with septic cardiomyopathy.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

李鹏飞;林家福;袁舜;蒋智;.脓毒性心肌病患者预后影响因素分析及预测模型构建[J].川北医学院学报,2025,40(6):764-769.

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-09
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码