急性肾损伤患者短期预后不良风险预测模型的构建与验证
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Construction and verification of risk prediction model for short-term poor prognosis in patients with acute kidney injury
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    目的:探究影响急性肾损伤(AKI)患者短期预后不良的危险因素,构建风险预测模型并进行验证。方法:选择228例AKI患者分为建模组(n=182)和验证组(n=46)。通过单因素、二元Logistic回归分析确定患者预后不良的危险因素,建立列线图模型,并采用ROC曲线、校准曲线、DCA曲线对模型进行验证。结果:建模组短期预后不良45例(24.73%),验证组短期预后不良11例(23.91%)。血小板、血尿素氮、出院血肌酐、血钾、肾脏替代治疗、住院时间与AKI患者短期预后不良独立相关(P<0.05)。模型在建模组中曲线下面积(AUC)为0.975(95%CI:0.956~0.994),验证组AUC为0.930(95%CI:0.858~1.000)。校准曲线分析显示,模型拟合良好。DCA曲线分析阈概率值各范围净收益均>0。结论:列线图模型对AKI患者短期预后不良具有较好的预测能力,可为医护人员对AKI短期预后不良的评估提供参考及借鉴。

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    Objective:To explore the risk factors affecting the short-term prognosis in patients with acute kidney injury(AKI),and to construct a risk prediction model and verify it.Methods:A total of 228 patients with AKI were chosen and split into modeling group(n=182)and verification group(n=46).The risk factors were determined by single factor and binary Logistic regression analy-sis,and the nomogram model was developed.And its effectiveness was evaluated using the ROC,calibration,and DCA curves.Results:Poor short-term prognosis occurred in 45 patients(24.73%)in the modeling group and 11 patients(23.91%)in the validation group.Platelet,blood urea nitrogen,serum creatinine,serum potassium,renal replacement therapy and length of stay were independent risk factors of poor short-term prognosis in patients with AKI.The AUC of the nomogram model in the modeling group was 0.975(95% CI:O.956~0.994),and the AUC of the validation group was 0.930(95% CI:O.858~1.000).The calibration curve analysis showed that the model fitted well.The net income of each range of the threshold probability value of the DCA curve analysis was greater than 0.Conclusion:The nomogram model has a good predictive ability for the short-term poor prognosis of AKI patients and can provide reference for medical staff to evaluate the short-term poor prognosis of AKI.

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任辉辉;方英;李文慧;张冠孟;.急性肾损伤患者短期预后不良风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].川北医学院学报,2025,40(7):935-939.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-10
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