儿童肺炎支原体肺炎并发大叶性肺炎的危险因素及其列线图模型构建
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蚌埠医科大学科研课题计划自然科学重点项目(2023byzd085);


Risk factors and nomogram model construction of mycoplasma pneumon-iae pneumonia complicated with lobar pneumonia in children
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    摘要:

    目的:分析儿童肺炎支原体肺炎(MPP)并发大叶性肺炎的危险因素,并构建其列线图预测模型。方法:回顾性队列分析322例MPP患儿的临床资料,根据影像学诊断标准是否并发大叶性肺炎分为并发组(n=179)和非并发组(n=143)。收集所有患儿一般资料、入院时实验室指标、影像学特征及治疗信息。比较两组患儿上述资料的差异,采用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选出MPP患儿并发大叶性肺炎的独立危险因素,并利用R软件构建其列线图模型;绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线验证模型的预测效能。结果:322例患儿中179例并发大叶性肺炎,发生率55.59%(179/322)。与并发组相比,非并发组年龄更大(P<0.05),发热持续时间≥7 d、合并胸腔积液、肺实变累及肺叶数≥2个肺叶的比例及PCT、D-二聚体、CRP、ESR、LDH水平均更高(P<0.05),发病至应用大环内酯类药物的时间长(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,发热持续时间≥7 d(OR=1.752,95%CI:1.324~2.319)、高水平CRP(OR=2.433,95%CI:1.529~3.871)、高水平LDH(OR=1.933,95%CI:1.377~2.713)、合并胸腔积液(OR=3.504,95%CI:1.535~7.998)及发病至应用大环内酯类药物的时间长(OR=2.591,95%CI:1.408~4.766)均是MPP患儿并发大叶性肺炎的独立风险因素(P<0.05)。列线图预测模型ROC的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.920,敏感度为85.47%,特异度为87.41%。结论:发热持续时间、CRP及LDH水平、胸腔积液及发病至应用大环内酯类药物的时间均与MPP患儿并发大叶性肺炎密切相关,以此构建的列线图预测模型经内部验证具有良好的预测效能。

    Abstract:

    Objective:To analyze the risk factors of mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia(MPP)complicated with lobar pneumonia in children,and to construct its nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of 322 children with MPP were retrospectively analyzed.According to the imaging diagnostic criteria,they were divided into concurrent group(n=179)and non-concurrent group(n=143).The general data,laboratory indicators at admission,imaging features and treatment infor-mation of all children were collected.The differences of the above data between the two groups were compared.Multivariate Lo-gistic regression analysis was used to screen out the independent risk factors of MPP children complicated with lobar pneumoni-a,and the nomogram model was constructed by R software.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to verify the predictive efficacy of the model.Results:Of the 322 children,179 had lobar pneumonia,with an incidence of 55.59%(179/322).Compared with the concurrent group,the non-concurrent group was older(P<0.05),the proportion of fever dura-tion≥7 d,pleural effusion,pulmonary consolidation involving more than 2 lobes and the levels of PCT,D-dimer,CRP,ESR and LDH were higher(P<0.05),and the time from onset to application of macrolides was longer(P<0.05).Multivariate Lo-gistic regression analysis showed that the duration of fever≥7 days(OR=1.752,95%CI:1.324~2.319),high level of CRP(OR=2.433,95%CI:1.529~3.871),high level of LDH(OR=1.933,95%CI:1.377~2.713),pleural effusion(OR=3.504,95%CI:1.535~7.998)and long time from onset to application of macrolides(OR=2.591,95%CI:1.408~4.766)were independent risk factors for lobar pneumonia in children with MPP(P<0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram prediction model ROC was 0.920,the sensitivity was 85.47%,and the specificity was 87.41%.Conclusion:Persis-tent fever,CRP and LDH levels,pleural effusion and the use of macrolides from onset to onset are closely related to lobar pneu-monia in children with MPP.The nomogram prediction model constructed based on this has good predictive efficacy after inter-nal verification.

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韩裕;彭万胜;夏群;贾文婷;.儿童肺炎支原体肺炎并发大叶性肺炎的危险因素及其列线图模型构建[J].川北医学院学报,2025,40(10):1313-1317.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-03
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