基于辅助生殖妊娠脐血流动力学参数及胎盘功能指标构建LASSO回归模型对胎儿生长受限的早期预测
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R714.5;R714.8

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福建省厦门市科技计划项目(3502Z20184066);


Constructing LASSO regression model for early prediction of fetal growth restriction based on assisted reproductive pregnancy umbilical cord blood flow parameters and placental function indicators
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    摘要:

    目的:探究孕中期脐血流动力学参数联合胎盘功能指标对辅助生殖技术(ART)妊娠发生胎儿生长受限(FGR)的早期预测价值,构建并验证预测模型。方法:选取317例进行ART助孕成功并持续妊娠的单胎孕妇为研究对象,追踪至分娩结束。根据是否发生FGR分为FGR组(n=41)和非FGR组(n=276)。于孕20~24周系统采集基线特征、脐血流动力学参数[收缩期峰值流速(S)、舒张末期流速(D)、S/D比值、阻力指数(RI)、搏动指数(PI)、收缩期峰值流速(Vs)、舒张末期流速(Vd)]及胎盘功能指标[24 h尿雌三醇、血清人胎盘生乳素(hPL)、2 h胎动情况]。采用LASSO-Logistic回归筛选独立预测因子,构建联合预测模型。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型区分度,Bootstrap法进行内部验证评估稳定性,绘制临床决策曲线(DCA)评价临床实用性。结果:经LASSO-Logistic分析,当λ=0.074时获得最优模型,结果显示,脐动脉血流动力学参数S/D比值(大)、RI(高)、PI(高)及血清hPL(低)、24 h尿雌三醇(低)、2 h胎动<6次是影响辅助生殖妊娠成功后发生FGR的危险因素(P<0.05);Bootstrap法对列线图模型进行内部验证,LASSO-Logistic预测模型ROC曲线下面积为0.871。经Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示,实际曲线与校准曲线平均绝对误差为0.03(χ2=0.162,P=0.872)。结论:基于孕中期脐动脉血流动力学参数S/D比值、RI、PI,及血清hPL、24 h尿雌三醇、2 h胎动<6次构建的LASSO回归模型,对ART妊娠FGR具有良好的早期预测价值。该模型稳定、临床实用性强,为ART妊娠个体化胎儿监护及早期干预提供了重要的循证依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective:To investigate the early predictive value of combining umbilical cord blood flow dynamics parameters with placental function indicators in the second trimester of pregnancy for fetal growth restriction(FGR)in assisted reproduc-tive technology(ART)pregnancies,and to develop and validate a predictive model.Methods:A total of 317 singleton pregnant women who successfully achieved ART-assisted pregnancies and maintained ongoing pregnancies were enrolled and followed up until delivery.Based on the occurrence of FGR,the participants were categorized into the FGR group(n=41)and the non-FGR group(n=276).At 20~24 weeks of gestation,baseline characteristics,umbilical artery hemodynamic parameters[peak systol-ic velocity(S),end-diastolic velocity(D),S/D ratio,resistance index(RI),pulsatility index(PI),peak systolic velocity(Vs),end-diastolic velocity(Vd)]and placental function indicators[24-hour urinary estriol,serum human placental lactogen(hPL),fetal movement counts within 2 hours]were systematically collected.Independent predictors were screened using LASSO-Lo-gistic regression to construct a combined prediction model.The model's discriminative ability was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Internal validation assessing stability was performed using the Bootstrap method.Clinical decision curve analysis(DCA)was employed to evaluate clinical utility.Results:Through LASSO-logistic regression analysis,the optimal model was achieved with λ=0.074.The findings indicated that elevated S/D ratios,increased Resistance Index(RI),higher Pulsatility Index(PI),reduced serum hPL levels,low 24-hour urinary estriol levels,and fewer than 6 fetal move-ments within two hours were significant risk factors influencing FGR following successful assisted reproductive pregnancies(P<0.05).The nomogram model was internally validated using the Bootstrap method,with the area under the ROC curve for the LASSO-Logistic prediction model being 0.871.Furthermore,the Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated that the mean abso-lute error between the actual values and the calibration curve was 0.03(χ2=0.162,P=0.872).Conclusion:The LASSO re-gression model,constructed based on mid-trimester umbilical artery hemodynamic parameters(S/D ratio,RI,PI),serum hPL,24-hour urinary estriol,and fetal movement counts<6 within 2 hours,demonstrates good early predictive value for FGR in ART pregnancies.This model exhibits stability and strong clinical utility,providing significant evidence-based support for indi-vidualized fetal surveillance and early intervention in ART pregnancies.

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汪文雁;马钦玲;.基于辅助生殖妊娠脐血流动力学参数及胎盘功能指标构建LASSO回归模型对胎儿生长受限的早期预测[J].川北医学院学报,2025,40(11):1417-1421+1445.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-22
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