手部创伤弧菌感染不良预后的危险因素分析及早期风险预测
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R658.2

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福建省漳州市自然科学基金项目(ZZ2023J24);


Risk factors analysis and early risk prediction of poor prognosis of hand Vibrio vulnificus infection
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    摘要:

    目的:分析影响手部创伤弧菌感染后不良预后的危险因素并据此构建相关预测模型,旨在为后续及时有效治疗提供指导。方法:回顾性分析80例手部创伤弧菌感染患者的资料,根据预后情况分为预后良好组(n=48)和预后不良组(n=32)。通过组间比较单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析筛选影响预后的危险因素,并基于上述因素构建回归预测模型并分析临床预测效能。结果:预后良好组患者合并基础疾病(肝功能损伤、糖尿病)的比例、受伤至首次应用抗生素的时间、就诊至手术时间均低于预后不良组(P<0.05);多因素Logistic回归分析发现合并基础疾病(肝功能损伤、糖尿病)、受伤至首次应用抗生素的时间、就诊至手术时间均是手部创伤弧菌感染预后不良的危险因素(P<0.05);列线图模型预测手部创伤弧菌感染预后不良的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.782(95%CI:0.675~0.800,P<0.05),敏感度为0.750,特异度为0.812。结论:手部创伤弧菌感染患者受合并基础疾病(肝功能损伤、糖尿病)、受伤至首次应用抗生素的时间、就诊至手术的时间的影响,由此绘制列线图与ROC曲线,其预测效能与准确性较高,对早期识别高风险患者群体具有指导作用。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To analyze the risk factors affecting the poor prognosis of handVibrio vulnificus infection and to construct a relevant prediction model, so as to provide more guidance for timely and effective treatment in the future. Methods: The data of 80 patients with handVibrio vulnificus infection were retrospectively analyzed. According to the prognosis, they were divided into good prognosis group (n=48) and poor prognosis group (n=32). The independent risk factors of prognosis were screened by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis. Based on the above factors, a regression prediction model was constructed and the clinical predictive efficacy was analyzed. Results: The proportion of patients with underlying diseases (liver function injury, diabetes), the time from injury to the first application of antibiotics, and the time from treatment to operation in the good prognosis group were lower than those in the poor prognosis group (P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that combined underlying diseases (liver function injury, diabetes), the time from injury to the first use of antibiotics, and the time from treatment to surgery were risk factors for poor prognosis of handV. vulnificus infection (P<0.05). The AUC of the nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis of handV. vulnificus infection was 0.782 (95% CI: 0.675~0.8, P<0.05), with a sensitivity of 0.750 and a specificity of 0.812. Conclusion: Patients withVibrio vulnificus infection were affected by underlying diseases (liver function injury, diabetes), the time from injury to the first application of antibiotics, and the time from treatment to surgery. The nomogram and ROC curve were drawn, which had high predictive efficiency and accuracy, and had a guiding role in early identification of high-risk patient groups.

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石伟发;石玲玲;丁罗兵;张剑平;苏瑞龙;郭志民.手部创伤弧菌感染不良预后的危险因素分析及早期风险预测[J].川北医学院学报,2026,41(3):308-311.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-26
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