基于双期增强 CT 的多模态模型早期预测急性胰腺炎相关急性肺损伤
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R576;R563

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国家自然科学基金(82371961); 四川省卫生健康委员会医学科技项目(24QNMP062); 川北医学院附属医院科研项目(BS20211116);


Early prediction of acute pancreatitis-induced acute lung injury using a multimodal model based on dual-phase contrast-enhanced CT
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    摘要:

    目的:构建基于腹部双期增强计算机断层扫描(CECT)的多模态深度学习-影像组学-临床(DRC)模型以早期预测急性胰腺炎相关急性肺损伤/急性呼吸窘迫综合征(AP-ALI/ARDS)。方法:回顾性纳入320例AP患者为研究对象,按7∶3比例随机划分为训练集(n=189)和内部测试集(n=81),并设外部测试集(n=50)。收集患者入院48 h内临床资料及CECT图像,采用逻辑回归方法筛选临床独立危险因素。手动勾画动脉期及门静脉期胰腺实质并提取筛选影像组学与深度学习特征。采用随机森林算法分别构建临床模型、影像组学模型、深度学习模型及DRC模型。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、DeLong检验、校准曲线与决策曲线分析(DCA)比较模型性能。结果:320例AP患者中,109例(34.06%)发生AP-ALI/ARDS。AP严重程度和血糖水平为AP-ALI/ARDS相关独立危险因素。最终筛选出6个影像组学特征和19个深度学习特征。DRC模型展现了卓越的预测性能,在训练集、内部及外部测试集中ROC曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.973、0.934、0.920。Delong检验表明DRC模型的AUC显著高于临床模型、影像组学模型(P<0.05)。校准曲线表明DRC模型具有最佳性能,且DCA显示DRC模型在大多数阈值概率下相比其他模型能提供更高的总体净收益。结论:DRC模型在早期预测AP-ALI/ARDS方面具有优异性能,可为临床干预提供决策支持。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To develop a multimodal deep learning-radiomics-clinical (DRC) model based on abdominal dual-phase contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) for the early prediction of acute pancreatitis-associated acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (AP-ALI/ARDS). Methods: 320 AP patients were enrolled and randomly divided into a training set (n=189) and an internal test set (n=81) in a 7∶3 ratio, with an additional external test set (n=50). Clinical data and CECT images acquired within 48 hours after admission were collected. Independent clinical risk factors were selected using Logistic regression. The pancreatic parenchyma was manually delineated on both arterial and portal venous phase images, from which radiomics and deep learning features were subsequently extracted and screened. The random forest algorithm was used to construct the clinical model, radiomics model, deep learning model, and DRC model, respectively. Model performance was evaluated and compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the DeLong test, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Among the 320 AP patients, 109 (34.06%) developed AP-ALI/ARDS. AP severity and blood glucose level were identified as independent risk factors. 6 radiomics features and 19 deep learning features were ultimately selected. The DRC model demonstrated superior predictive performance, achieving areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) of 0.973, 0.934, and 0.920 in the training, internal test, and external test sets, respectively. The DeLong test indicated that the AUC of the DRC model was significantly higher than those of the clinical and radiomics models (P<0.05). Calibration curves demonstrated that the DRC model exhibited the best performance, and DCA showed that it provided a greater overall net benefit across most threshold probabilities compared to other models. Conclusion: The DRC model exhibits excellent performance for the early prediction of AP-ALI/ARDS and shows potential as decision-support tool to guide clinical intervention.

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陈姝君;熊园;宋学亮;邓萍;邓鸿;张小明;李兴辉.基于双期增强 CT 的多模态模型早期预测急性胰腺炎相关急性肺损伤[J].川北医学院学报,2026,41(4):408-416.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-06
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