基于 CT 和临床特征的列线图模型预测急性胰腺炎经口进食时机:多中心研究
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R445.3

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国家自然科学基金(82371961);川北医学院附属医院科技项目(揭榜挂帅)(2022JB001)


Nomogram model based on CT and clinical features for predicting the timing of oral feeding in acute pancreatitis: A multicenter study
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    摘要:

    目的:确定影响急性胰腺炎(AP)患者经口进食时机的因素,并建立基于胃肠道 CT 特征和临床指标的预测模 型,指导 AP临床进食。方法:回顾性分析152例 AP 患者的临床资料,以6∶4比例随机分为训练集和内部验证集,来自另外 两家三级甲等综合医院的59例和55例患者组成两个外部验证集。患者分为早期进食组(发病7d内)和晚期进食组(发病 7d后),评估其临床指标及 AP的 CT表现、胃肠道改变 CT 评分。采用单因素及多因素 Logistic回归分析确定独立预测因 素,构建列线图模型,并使用受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线和 DCA 曲线评估其性能。结果:白蛋白、EPIC评分及胃肠道改 变 CT评分为预测 AP患者早期经口进食的独立危险因素,训练集模型的AUC 为0.80,优于仅临床指标(AUC=0.70)或 CT 特征(AUC=0.78)的模型;内部验证集和两个外部验证集的AUC 分别为0.68、0.88和0.84。校准曲线、DCA 曲线显示其具 有良好的一致性及临床实用性。结论:该综合模型能准确预测 AP患者的经口进食时机,为个性化营养管理提供有价值的 指导。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To identify factors affecting oral feeding resumption timing in acute pancreatitis (AP) and establish a nomogram model that integrates clinical indicators and CT gastrointestinal tract features for guiding AP feeding decisions. Methods: A retrospective multicenter study enrolled 152 AP patients (randomized to 60% training and 40% internal validation cohorts) plus two external validation groups (n=59 and n=55, respectively) from the other two tertiary hospitals. Patients were stratified by early or late feeding initiation (within or after 7 days of onset). Clinical data, CT findings including Extrapancreatic Inflammation on CT (EPIC) scores, and gastrointestinal change on CT scores were collected. Independent predictors of early feeding were identified via univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression to build a nomogram, with performance evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Serum albumin, EPIC score, and gastrointestinal change on CT score were independent predictors of early oral feeding (P<0.05). The AUC of nomogram model was 0.80 (training cohort), outperforming clinical-only (AUC=0.70) and imaging-only (AUC = 0.78) models. Internal and the other two external validation AUCs were 0.68, 0.88 and 0.84, respectively. Calibration and DCA verified good consistency and clinical utility. Conclusion: The integrated nomogram model accurately predicts AP oral feeding time, providing valuable guidance for personalized nutritional management.

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唐超华;吴佳隆;胡友强;周梦婷;张婷;钟馨月;李兴辉;张小明.基于 CT 和临床特征的列线图模型预测急性胰腺炎经口进食时机:多中心研究[J].川北医学院学报,2026,41(5):535-540.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-29
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