构建成都地区健康体检人群正常高值血压风险列线图模型并验证
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R851.3

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四川省成都市医学科研课题立项项目(2024473)


Development of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of developing high-normal blood pressure in a health examination population of Chengdu and verify it
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    摘要:

    目的:构建成都地区健康体检人群发生正常高值血压的风险预测列线图模型。方法:选取2022年1月至2022 年12月在成都市第三人民医院体检中心的1709名体检者为研究对象进行回顾性研究。正常高值血压及高血压判断标准按 照《中国高血压防治指南(2024年修订版)》,将体检者分为正常血压组(n=1152)和正常高值血压组(n=557),同时收集体检 者的一般资料和实验室检查结果。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析年龄、体质量指数(BMI)、超敏 C 反应蛋白(hsCRP)、胱抑素 C(CysC)、同型半胱氨酸(Hcy)、尿酸(UA)、甘油三酯(TG)、总胆固醇(TC)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、高 密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)、空腹血糖(FBG)、糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)对体检人群发生正常高值血压的曲线下面积(AUC)并 计算最佳截断值。Logistic回归分析健康体检人群发生正常高值血压的影响因素。采用 R(4.2.1)软件的rms(6.4.0)程序包 构建列线图模型。采用 C统计量与 Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验评价模型的预测效能与拟合度。结果:健康体检人群中,正常高 值血压的患者检出 率 为 32.59%(557/1709)。多 因 素 Logistic回 归 分 析 结 果 显 示,年 龄 (OR=1.425,95% CI:1.137~ 1.786)、性别(OR=1.447,95% CI:1.063~1.968)、BMI(OR=2.958,95% CI:2.261~3.868)及血液学指标 Hcy(OR= 1.614,95% CI:1.226~2.125)、TC(OR=1.383,95% CI:1.049~1.823)、FBG(OR=1.469,95% CI:1.164~1.854)是健康 人群发生正常高值血压的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。Hosmer-Lemeshow 拟合优度检验结果表明,所构建的正常高值血压的 风险预测列线图模型的拟合情况较好(χ2=11.092,P=0.197)。以该模型判断健康体检人群发生正常高值血压的概率预测 值为基础,绘制 ROC曲线,C-统计量为0.710(95%CI:0.684~0.736)。校准曲线分析显示,该模型预测健康人群发生正常 高值血压的发生率与实际发生率基本一致。结论:年龄、性别、BMI及血液学指标 Hcy、TC、FBG是健康人群发生正常高值血 压的独立危险因素,基于上述危险因素所构建的健康人群发生正常高值血压的风险预测列线图模型拟合情况较好,具有较好的 区分度、校准度。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To develop a nomogram model for predicting the risk of developing high-normal blood pressure in a health examination population of Chengdu. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 1,709 cases of physical examination in the physical examination center of the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu from January 2022 to December 2022. According to the Chinese guidelines for the prevention and treatment of hypertension (2024 revision), the subjects were divided into normal blood pressure group (n=1,152) and high-normal blood pressure group (n=557), and the general information and laboratory test results of the subjects were collected. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate age, body mass index (BMI), hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), cystatin C (CysC), homocysteine (Hcy), uric acid (UA), triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting blood glucose (FBG) on physical examination of high-normal blood pressure prediction ability and to find the optimal cut-off values. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors of high-normal blood pressure in healthy people. The rms (6.4.0) package of R (4.2.1) software was used to construct a nomogram model for predicting the risk of high-normal blood pressure in healthy people. The C statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the model's predictive performance and goodness of fit. Results: The detection rate of high-normal blood pressure in healthy people was 32.59% (557/1,709). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=1.425, 95%CI:1.137~1.786), gender (OR=1.447, 95%CI:1.063~1.968), BMI (OR=2.958, 95% CI:2.261~3.868) and hematological indexes Hcy (OR=1.614, 95%CI:1.226~2.125), TC (OR=1.383, 95%CI:1.049~1.823) and FBG (OR=1.469, 95% CI:1.164~1.854) were independent risk factors for high-normal blood pressure in healthy people (P<0.05). Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test results showed that the fitting of the nomogram model was better (χ2=11.092, P=0.1965). The ROC curve was drawn on the basis of the model to determine the probability prediction of high-normal blood pressure in the healthy population, with a C-statistic of 0.710 and a 95% CI of 0.684~0.736. The calibration curve analysis showed that the nomogram model predicted the incidence of high-normal blood pressure in healthy people was basically consistent with the actual incidence. Conclusion: Age, gender, BMI and hematological indicators Hcy, TC, FBG are the independent risk factors of high-normal blood pressure in healthy people. The risk prediction nomogram model of high-normal blood pressure in healthy people based on the above factors is well fitted, and has a good degree of differentiation and calibration.

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梁树梅;赵勇;李妮;鲜黎;罗燕林;唐逸娇;李珂.构建成都地区健康体检人群正常高值血压风险列线图模型并验证[J].川北医学院学报,2026,41(5):610-615.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-29
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