预测ICU危重症糖尿病肾病患者90天院内死亡风险列线图的建立及评价
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R587.2;R692.9

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四川省医学科研课题计划(S22079); 四川省南充市科技研发计划专项资金(23JCYJRT0055);


Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting 90-day in-hospital mortality risk in critically ill ICU patients with diabetic nephropathy
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    摘要:

    目的:开发并验证一项动态列线图,用于早期预测ICU危重症糖尿病肾病(DKD)患者发生90 d院内死亡的风险,填补该领域预测模型的空白。方法:研究数据来源于MIMIC-IV数据库,按照7∶3的比例随机划分为训练集和验证集。使用Boruta算法、最小绝对收缩与选择算子(LASSO)回归方法联合筛选特征变量。使用R语言对90 d院内死亡风险列线图进行可视化,并借助DynNom包生成动态列线图。模型性能通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)及校准曲线进行评估;临床应用价值通过决策曲线分析(DCA)加以验证。结果:本研究共纳入405例ICU危重症DKD患者,其中88例患者发生90 d院内死亡。结果显示,入院年龄、红细胞分布宽度(RDW)及谵妄为90 d院内死亡的预测因素,多因素逻辑回归提示各变量均具有统计学意义,森林图可视化了各预测变量的效应估计值及95%CI。训练集和测试集的AUC分别为0.825(95%CI:0.793~0.857)和0.717(95%CI:0.592~0.841)。校准曲线提示预测一致性良好,DCA证实该模型具有临床价值。动态列线图可通过以下网址在线使用:https://codepen.io/Thi-Giang-Ho/pen/vEKOQar。结论:基于MIMIC-IV数据库构建的动态列线图整合了3项易获取的临床特征,用于预测ICU危重症DKD患者90 d院内死亡概率。内部验证显示该模型具有稳健的预测性能和良好的临床实用性。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To develop and validate a dynamic nomogram for the early prediction of 90-day in-hospital mortality risk in critically ill ICU patients with diabetic kidney disease (DKD), thereby filling the gap in predictive models for this population. Methods: Data were extracted from the MIMIC-IV database and divided into training and validation sets in a 7∶3 ratio. Feature variables were selected using the Boruta algorithm combined with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. The nomogram for 90-day in-hospital mortality risk was visualized using R software, and a dynamic nomogram was generated using the DynNom package. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curves. The clinical utility was validated through decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: A total of 405 critically ill ICU patients with DKD were included, of whom 88 experienced 90-day in-hospital mortality. The results showed that admission age, red cell distribution width (RDW), and delirium were independent predictors of 90-day in-hospital mortality. Multivariable Logistic regression indicated that all three variables were statistically significant, and a forest plot visualized the effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals. The AUC values were 0.825 (95% CI: 0.793~0.857) for the training set and 0.717 (95% CI: 0.592~0.841) for the validation set. The calibration curves demonstrated good prediction concordance, and DCA confirmed the model's significant clinical value. The dynamic nomogram was available online at: https://codepen.io/Thi-Giang-Ho/pen/vEKOQar. Conclusion: The dynamic nomogram constructed based on the MIMIC-IV database integrates three readily available clinical features to predict the probability of 90-day in-hospital mortality in critically ill ICU patients with DKD. Internal validation demonstrated robust predictive performance and good clinical utility of the model.

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万霞;刘明媛;苟连平;.预测ICU危重症糖尿病肾病患者90天院内死亡风险列线图的建立及评价[J].川北医学院学报,2026,41(10):1218-1224.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-26
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