Development and validation of a risk nomogram model for the prediction of ARF following colorectal cancer surgery using quantitative parameters from contrast-enhanced ultrasound in combination with CEA and CA19-9 levels
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
    Abstract:

    Objective:To develop and validate a risk nomogram model that investigates the predictive value of quantitative pa-rameters from contrast-enhanced ultrasound in combination with carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA)and carbohydrate antigen(CA19-9)for postoperative acute renal failure(ARF)following colorectal cancer surgery.Methods:A total of 50 patients with postoperative ARF(study group)and 52 patients without postoperative ARF(control group)who underwent radical resection of colorectal cancer were en-rolled.All patients underwent contrast-enhanced ultrasound examination,blood routine examination,etc.Quantitative parameters of con-trast-enhanced ultrasound,CEA and CA19-9 levels were collected.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were per-formed to identify the risk factors associated with ARF following colorectal cancer surgery,and a nomogram risk prediction model was developed and validated.Results:The results of univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that elevated levels of peak intensity(PI),area under the curve(AUC),mean transit time(MTT),time to Peak(TTP)delay,glomerular filtration rate(eG-FR),as well as high expression of serum CEA and CA19-9,were identified as significant risk factors for postoperative ARF in patients with colorectal cancer(P<0.05).The nomogram revealed that abnormal values of PI,TTP,MTT,and AUC were the most robust pre-dictors for postoperative ARF in patients with colorectal cancer,followed by high expression of serum CEA and CA19-9.Internal valida-tion using computer simulation resampling through the Bootstrap method was employed to validate the nomogram model.The verification results indicated an area under the ROC curve of 0.870 for the nomogram,with a sensitivity of 80.26% and specificity of 86.70%.The C-index was calculated as 0.816,while the H-L goodness-of-fit test showed no significant difference between predicted values and actu-al observations(x2=4.116,P=0.468).Conclusion:Abnormal quantitative parameters of contrast-enhanced ultrasound and high ex-pression of serum CEA and CA19-9 are risk factors for postoperative ARF in patients with colorectal cancer.The nomogram model,con-structed based on these factors,demonstrates effective predictive capability for assessing the risk of postoperative ARF in patients with colorectal cancer.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

王琮;王逸群;杨燕;段秉慧;.超声造影定量参数结合CEA、CA19-9水平预测结直肠癌术后ARF风险的列线图模型的构建与验证[J]. Journal of North Sichuan Medical College,2025,40(7):855-860.

Copy
Related Videos

Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: August 10,2025
  • Published:
Article QR Code