Construction and verification of risk prediction model for short-term poor prognosis in patients with acute kidney injury
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    Abstract:

    Objective:To explore the risk factors affecting the short-term prognosis in patients with acute kidney injury(AKI),and to construct a risk prediction model and verify it.Methods:A total of 228 patients with AKI were chosen and split into modeling group(n=182)and verification group(n=46).The risk factors were determined by single factor and binary Logistic regression analy-sis,and the nomogram model was developed.And its effectiveness was evaluated using the ROC,calibration,and DCA curves.Results:Poor short-term prognosis occurred in 45 patients(24.73%)in the modeling group and 11 patients(23.91%)in the validation group.Platelet,blood urea nitrogen,serum creatinine,serum potassium,renal replacement therapy and length of stay were independent risk factors of poor short-term prognosis in patients with AKI.The AUC of the nomogram model in the modeling group was 0.975(95% CI:O.956~0.994),and the AUC of the validation group was 0.930(95% CI:O.858~1.000).The calibration curve analysis showed that the model fitted well.The net income of each range of the threshold probability value of the DCA curve analysis was greater than 0.Conclusion:The nomogram model has a good predictive ability for the short-term poor prognosis of AKI patients and can provide reference for medical staff to evaluate the short-term poor prognosis of AKI.

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任辉辉;方英;李文慧;张冠孟;.急性肾损伤患者短期预后不良风险预测模型的构建与验证[J]. Journal of North Sichuan Medical College,2025,40(7):935-939.

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  • Online: August 10,2025
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