Prediction nomogram for bronchopulmonary dysplasia in low birth weight infants borne earlier than 32 weeks
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    Abstract:

    Objective:To explore and validate a nomogram for early prediction of bronchopulmonary dysplasia(BPD)in low birth weight infants borne earlier than 32 weeks.Methods:Preterm infants with a birth weight of less than 2 500 g and ges-tational age≤32 weeks were selected for retrospective analysis.The risk factors of BPD were analyzed,and its effectiveness was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,sensitivity,and specificity.Internal valida-tion of the model was conducted using Bootstrap resampling.Hosmer-Lemeshow test and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used for evaluating calibration and clinical applicability.Results:A total of 260 preterm infants were included in the study,with 79 cases in the BPD group and 181 cases in the non-BPD group.The results of the multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the lack of regular prenatal steroid use before maternal delivery(OR=3.317,95%CI:1.377~7.990),gestational age(OR=0.528,95%CI:0.401~0.695),neonatal respiratory distress syndrome(NRDS,OR=3.175,95%CI:1.529~6.593),and mechanical ventilation(OR=2.537,95%CI:1.215~5.300)were independent risk factors for BPD in preterm in-fants with low birth weight(P<0.05).Based on the results of the multivariate Logistic regression analysis,a nomogram model was established,with the area under the ROC curve being 0.836(95%CI:0.784~0.887).At a cutoff value of 0.293,the sen-sitivity was 0.810(95%CI:0.724~0.897),and the specificity was 0.779(95%CI:0.719~0.839),indicating that the model has good discriminative ability.The clinical effectiveness of the predictive model was assessed using the DCA,which showed that when the threshold probability for the modeling cohort was between 10%and 70%,there was a higher net benefit for the clinical prediction of infants.Conclusion:Maternal irregular use of hormones before delivery,gestational age,NRDS,and me-chanical ventilation in low birth weight infants borne earlier than 32 weeks increase the risk of BPD.The establishment of a no-mogram model provides clinicians with a visual tool for early identification of BPD.

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高阳;潘亮;刘前芳;李倩;崔新萍;曾燕;.胎龄≤32周的低出生体质量儿支气管肺发育不良的预测模型[J]. Journal of North Sichuan Medical College,2025,40(10):1328-1332.

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  • Online: November 03,2025
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